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Leading Indicators Down, But Signs of Life Emerge

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a barometer of future economic activity, fell 0.3% in March, after a revised 0.2% drop in February. The index has not risen in nearly a year. However, the report signaled that the intensity of the recession will ease as the year progresses. "The recession may continue through summer, but the intensity will ease," Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board, said. "There have been some intermittent signs of improvement in the economy in April, but the leading economic index and most of its components are still pointing down." Pulling the index lower were building permits, stock prices, more claims for unemployment insurance and vendors' deliveries to businesses. Positive indicators included growth in the real money supply from Federal Reserve programs to pump up the economy, the wide "interest rate spread," or difference between the interest rates for 10-year Treasuries and the benchmark federal funds rate, and the consumer expectations index.

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Date Last Updated: 04/22/2009