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Leading Indicators Down in February

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, considered a barometer of economic activity for the next three to six months, fell 0.4% in February, following a revised 0.1% gain in January and a 0.1% drop in December. The Conference Board said while indicators that make up its index have been trending lower since July 2007, the pace of decline has moderated in recent months. "Financial market volatility remains strong, and the credit market freeze is relenting very slowly," Ken Goldstein, economist at Conference Board, said. "A return to strong growth will not likely occur until 2010." Four of the 10 indicators posted declines in February. The index's worst performer was average weekly initial jobless claims, which dropped to 646,000 last week, according to the Labor Department. The leading indicators' biggest positive was the "interest rate spread," or the difference between the interest rates for 10-year Treasuries and the benchmark federal funds rate, which the Federal Reserve now has between zero and 0.25%.

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Date Last Updated: 03/25/2009