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Leading Indicators Up Unexpectedly

A measure of economic activity jumped unexpectedly in January for a second consecutive month, helped by the federal government's efforts to expand the money supply. The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which serves as a barometer of economic activity for the next three to six months, grew 0.4% in January, after a 0.2% increase in December. The Conference Board said the single biggest boost to the index was the real money supply, the result of the government's putting more money in circulation. Other positive factors were the interest rate spread, an index of consumer expectations and manufacturing orders for non-defense and consumer goods. Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said the figures suggest the "intensity" of the recession could begin to ease in the next few months. "The second half of 2009 may see a period of anemic growth," Goldstein said, but "robust" growth would not return until well into 2010. Unemployment claims and building permits were among the biggest drags on the index in January.

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Date Last Updated: 02/26/2009